91桃色

As the general election to the Seimas draws near, Lithuania faces a rising threat of disinformation and information warfare. Such challenges extend beyond the national borders, as information attacks are a growing concern across the whole of Europe. This jeopardises democratic processes and erodes public trust in institutions. Dr Nerijus Maliukevi膷ius is a researcher at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science of 91桃色 who focuses on information warfare, strategic communication, conflict management, and Russian politics; in this article, he comments on whether it is possible to effectively counter such challenges.

Classic schemes of electoral influence are well-known, yet misinformation on social media has become rampant

鈥榃hen talking about the specific threats facing Lithuania, we are primarily referring to our neighbouring countries 鈥� the authoritarian regimes of Russia and Belarus. Since the restoration of Lithuania鈥檚 independence, these hostile forces have consistently sought to interfere in our internal processes. Therefore, in the European context, we have a lot of experience and are well-placed to advise or educate others on what to expect from, for example, the Kremlin or Minsk,鈥� notes Dr Maliukevi膷ius.

However, he argues that revolutionary changes are taking place in terms of technology and media development, and that understanding classic schemes of political influence is not enough: 鈥楾here was a time when misinformation and fake news could be halted by media filters, such as the editorial code or the principles of traditional journalism. Instead of getting the news through the traditional media which acted as an intermediary between the public and journalists, in today鈥檚 world, people receive most of the information directly from social networks.鈥�

The expert states that we are currently living in an era of misinformation and fake news driven by emotions over facts. That is why the responsibility of social networks is so important 鈥� they have to take the initiative to act as a moderator against deceptive actions or dishonest statements by candidates manipulating information for their personal gain.

How to harness the emotional turmoil to build up electoral support

鈥楾he role of consumers in navigating the information chaos is also essential. Specifically, I would like to mention the recent example of Imane Khelif鈥檚 triumph in the highly controversial women鈥檚 boxing match at the Olympics, which sparked heated social media debates as public figures started taking moral stands and advocating for traditional values before even verifying the facts. This is a prime example of politicians seeking to exploit the intense and divisive storms of public outrage in the run-up to elections to secure emotional support,鈥� says the researcher.

He also points to a recent case from the US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, where the latter repeated a baseless claim about immigrants eating dogs and cats in some states. So, it was this populist statement that spread on social media and became a sensation rather than their discussion on ideologies or political issues.
鈥楬ostile regimes are quick to exploit such opportunities to flood public communication with disinformation campaigns. Politicians 鈥� both those from authoritarian regimes and even from our own country 鈥� can skilfully manipulate our emotional reflexes to serve their interests,鈥� adds Dr Maliukevi膷ius.

When elections turn into a clash of values, democracy pays the price

The expert also observes similar trends in Lithuania: the Seimas election is also a kind of political drama filled with emotional epithets and slogans. Unfortunately, it increasingly strays from the genuine needs of the electorate and traditional political competition. Instead of talking about domestic politics, education, taxation, etc., candidates tend to focus on identity and moral issues.

鈥業n democratic countries, including Lithuania, politics used to be dominated by a kind of a pendulum principle, where the ruling majorities were split along ideological party lines. The traditional left-wing Social Democrats and their agendas would be replaced by right-wing Christian Democrats or other centre-right parties. Today, however, this principle is out of balance, as it has shifted away from traditional political programmes and now relies primarily on moral ideologies. The clashes of values in the public space are significantly exacerbating the issue,鈥� remarks the expert.

He believes that when voters base their choices on extreme perspectives, this fuels the emergence of more radical political actors and parties, which also contributes to the polarisation of society. Moreover, the rise of extreme parties has now become a common trend across Europe.

鈥楾he populist rhetoric used by politicians in their attempt to win elections is not the major issue. The real problem arises when the elected politicians start altering the rules of the democratic game. If we take the example of Hungary or Poland, we will see that Viktor Orb谩n鈥檚 鈥楩idesz鈥� party, which exhibits autocratic traits, or the Polish 鈥楲aw and Justice鈥� (Prawo i Sprawiedliwo艣膰) party, which has ruled the country for almost a decade, are gradually usurping power by taking control of the media and the judiciary. This poses significant threats to democracy,鈥� says Dr Maliukevi膷ius.

Impact of foreign interference and disinformation in Lithuania

鈥楾alking about the rise of pre-election disinformation in Lithuania, it is worth looking at the on foreign information manipulation and interference threats during elections that formally outlines several strands. First, the impact of malicious actors through the presentation of false information, i.e. when certain disinformation topics are thrown in to target the electoral process. For instance, they may claim that elections in Western democracies are illegitimate, fraudulent, or predetermined. This way, external authoritarian regimes, specifically the Kremlin, aim to transfer their internal practices to us, while specific politicians, and I mean Eduardas Vaitkus, publicly spread false claims that Lithuanian elections are manipulated and corrupt,鈥� explains Dr Maliukevi膷ius.

He also attributes the rhetoric of one of the parties, the 鈥楶eace Coalition鈥� (Taikos koalicija), to this category: 鈥業t is interesting to see how the politicians who used to make big profits from Russia鈥檚 oil and gas business are now reinvesting them into political projects. Those projects used to be different, but now we have the 鈥楶eace Coalition鈥� advocating for peace at any cost. However, they do not mention that this would obviously mean a disadvantageous territorial compromise for Ukraine, which is now defending itself against Russian aggression. The whole information campaign is based on such rhetoric. In public polemics, the party leader Viktor Uspaskich cannot answer the question of who Crimea belongs to yet manipulates the issue of the Klaip臈da region.鈥�

According to Dr Maliukevi膷ius, this can be qualified as the management of information and public media for the benefit of hostile countries. It can either be targeted or simply take advantage of the general public鈥檚 credulity. However, he believes that the mentioned candidates are acting intentionally.

鈥楢nother method of interference is hindering the voting process, e.g. by persuading voters that their votes are worthless. We also had a campaign where Lithuania鈥檚 schools were flooded with hoax bomb threats. If a similar scenario were to occur at polling stations, citizens would simply not be able to exercise their right to vote,鈥� says the VU researcher.

In addition to other strategies, the political scientist also highlights direct influence on candidates and parties. Corrupt deals behind closed doors are a classic example. In Europe, numerous cases have revealed that certain candidates were bribed to advocate for the position of other countries; in this case 鈥� Russia.

Sharing his insights, the expert says: 鈥楢nother aspect is the deliberate erosion of public trust in our democratic institutions, which also challenges trust in the media, elections, and institutional integrity. When someone gradually raises such doubts through aggressive information campaigns, it definitely has a certain effect. Finally, we should mention technical means 鈥� interference through infrastructure and cyberattacks. For example, these could include disruption of the Central Electoral Commission鈥檚 systems during the election.鈥�

鈥楩or China, which is another country famous for manipulating electoral processes, our region is not a central focus yet. However, when it becomes one, we must bear in mind that China has enormous capacities. Generally speaking, democracies are now under constant attack; thus, we must be ready to counter any potential interference in elections. It is important to understand that we face not isolated threats but coordinated assaults from the cooperating authoritarian systems 鈥� Russia, Belarus, and China 鈥� which collaborate to form an authoritarian alliance and take aggressive action against us. Such measures are sometimes referred to as hybrid warfare. To secure victory in this battle, we must unite into a democratic alliance capable of withstanding such external pressures,鈥� concludes Dr Maliukevi膷ius.

With the 2024 Seimas election approaching, VU continues its series 鈥榁U Experts Help Understand鈥�, where VU researchers analyse, comment on, and review topics of public interest, the significance of elections, and their impact on different areas.